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Russian Nuclear Strategist Alarmed by U.S. Intelligence Estimate on Iran

[Ynet News] Uzi Arad - Retired Russian General Vladimir Dvorkin told the "Luxembourg Forum" of nuclear strategists that the thrust of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate was disquieting rather than reassuring. In his opinion, the central finding of the report was the very fact that until 2003, Iran had a nuclear weapons program. Dvorkin does not see the fact that Iran's military program was allegedly suspended as encouraging; on the contrary, it could point to the fact that Iran's mission to build simple "gun-type" mechanisms has been accomplished. In his opinion, the program was frozen in order to allow for the production of the larger amounts of fissile material that such mechanisms require. Now all that remains for Iran to complete an operational nuclear weapons arsenal is to produce the necessary amounts of fissile material. If the observation of the NIE's authors is correct - that Iran is motivated by cost-benefit calculations - then it is now more urgent than ever to intensify the political and economic sanctions against Iran, particularly in the critical area of the importing of oil products and the exporting of oil and gas. Moreover, it is crucial to restore credibility to the military option. The writer heads the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.
2007-12-26 01:00:00
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