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Needed: A Paradigm Shift in the Middle East Peace Process - Shlomo Avineri

(Fathom-BICOM) The last time serious negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority took place under the Olmert government no agreement was reached, despite almost two years of continuous meetings by top officials. When negotiations reached the core issues - borders-settlements, Jerusalem, refugees and security - the gaps were too wide to overcome. This is significant, as both sides at that time represented the most conceivably moderate positions, and went into negotiations with a sincere commitment to a two-state solution. On Jerusalem, no formula acceptable to both sides could be found. And for the Palestinians, the "right of return" of 1948 refugees and their descendants continues to be a major building block of their national narrative. For Israel, the government insisted on some presence in the Jordan Valley and a complete demilitarization of the future Palestinian state, which was rejected by the Palestinians as emasculating its sovereignty and independence. Moreover, no territorial swaps could address the issue of settlements and borders. As the Palestinians insisted on a full return to the 1967 lines, no Israeli government could conceivably evacuate a quarter of a million settlers. These fundamental disagreements have not gone away. Even if negotiations are resumed, it is inconceivable that what was not acceptable to Olmert would be acceptable to Netanyahu. Or that the PA, emboldened by its support at the UN General Assembly, will be more flexible now than it was four years ago. To maintain, as one sometimes hears, that "everybody knows" what the ultimate agreement would look like overlooks the history of the conflict as well as the last twenty years. Since Oslo, all negotiations have failed. Perhaps the Europeans agree how to solve the conflict, but neither side in the conflict does. What is needed is a paradigm change - a realization, like in Cyprus, Kosovo and Bosnia, that at the moment there is no possibility of reaching a final status agreement. Yet there are numerous ways to diminish the conflict, to achieve partial agreements and to create a less tense atmosphere, which may eventually help in bridging gaps. The time has come for the international community to lower its sights and attempt to reach attainable goals, not well-meaning but at the moment utopian ones which attempt to resolve the entire conflict. The writer is professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a former director-general of Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
2013-07-26 00:00:00
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