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(New York Times) Kenneth M. Pollack - Proponents of deterrence argue that Mr. Hussein will not engage in new aggression, even after he has acquired nuclear weapons, because he is not deliberately suicidal and so would not risk an American nuclear response. But what they overlook is that Mr. Hussein is often unintentionally suicidal - that is, he miscalculates his odds of success and frequently ignores the likelihood of catastrophic failure. Mr. Hussein is a risk-taker who plays dangerous games without realizing how dangerous they truly are. He is deeply ignorant of the outside world and surrounded by sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear. [The author is a former CIA analyst of the Iraqi military.] 2002-09-26 00:00:00Full Article
Why Iraq Can't Be Deterred
(New York Times) Kenneth M. Pollack - Proponents of deterrence argue that Mr. Hussein will not engage in new aggression, even after he has acquired nuclear weapons, because he is not deliberately suicidal and so would not risk an American nuclear response. But what they overlook is that Mr. Hussein is often unintentionally suicidal - that is, he miscalculates his odds of success and frequently ignores the likelihood of catastrophic failure. Mr. Hussein is a risk-taker who plays dangerous games without realizing how dangerous they truly are. He is deeply ignorant of the outside world and surrounded by sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear. [The author is a former CIA analyst of the Iraqi military.] 2002-09-26 00:00:00Full Article
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