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Can Israel Depend on U.S. Security Guarantees?

(Weekly Standard) Elliott Abrams - Secretary of State John Kerry told a group of key Jewish leaders last week that the regional strategic environment has become favorable for a peace agreement because opponents of peace have weakened over the past two years. But few were persuaded by Kerry's arguments. Mubarak is gone and Egypt is unstable. Jordan has seen more demonstrations against the king in the last two years than in the ten before that, and now houses about 600,000 Syrian refugees. Syria is at war and the jihadi presence on Israel's border is growing. Moreover, Iran is moving closer and closer to a nuclear weapon. Kerry also said one of the lynchpins of the current peace process is the separation of Israel's security assurances from the general negotiations, assurances that would be guaranteed in a separate agreement with the U.S. The security track is being worked out under the auspices of retired Marine Corps general John Allen, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's special adviser for Middle East peace. This suggests that Israel is negotiating security matters with the U.S. rather than with the PLO, which is unworkable because the PLO, not the U.S., has to agree and sign the deal. How does a separate American "guarantee" help? If the Palestinians do not agree, the U.S. cannot enforce it. And will such a guarantee be trusted? In 2004, President Bush gave Prime Minister Sharon certain guarantees about American policy, but the Obama administration treated those as a kind of private letter having no binding policy impact. The writer, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as Deputy National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush.
2013-08-13 00:00:00
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