Daily Alert Archives

Iran vs. the West: Endgame?

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Michael Segall - Iran comes to the negotiations with the West in incomparably better geostrategic circumstances than in 2003, when it temporarily suspended uranium enrichment to further advance its nuclear program, then in its infancy. Iran is not entering the nuclear negotiations out of weakness, but, rather, from a position of strength. In Iran's view (which some of the Gulf States share), America's regional status and deterrence power are in continuing decline. Given Iran's sense of power linked with both domestic and regional stability, it comes to the negotiations in a mood of confidence verging on hubris. Khamenei's statement that "some of the events in Rouhani's visit to New York were inappropriate," which has been interpreted as criticism of his telephone conversation with Obama, and his harsh words about America's "true nature" generally, have prompted a wave of declarations in favor of continuing to chant "Death to America." The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Ali Jafari, called the Rouhani-Obama chat "a tactical error and a big mistake....If there are to be additional errors the revolutionary forces will take the necessary measures." Iran now controls the nuclear fuel cycle and can, whenever it decides, break out to build a bomb in a few months. Iran believes that nuclear weapons will buy it the sort of immunity from attack that North Korea now enjoys. It also seeks to promote its revolutionary objectives abroad and assume its place in the regional and international power equation as the one who sets the agenda and influences the reshaping of the Middle East in a way that counters and curbs U.S. influence. IDF Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center.
2013-10-18 00:00:00
Full Article