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How to Test Iran's Strategy

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Avner Golov - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would support an early agreement with the West only if Rouhani can reach a deal that will preserve Iranian nuclear capabilities. Otherwise, Khamenei might prefer to drag out the talks indefinitely before they are pronounced a failure, thereby further advancing Iran's nuclear capabilities and reducing the threat of a Western assault on its nuclear infrastructure. To test Iran's strategy, the U.S. must shorten the timetable for reaching an agreement in order to create a final, comprehensive package deal that will resolve all the aspects of the Iranian nuclear issue. This will allow the West to determine whether the Iranians are dragging their feet or not. Confidence-building measures must be made conditional on significant concessions at the end of a short, predetermined period of time. Sanctions against Iran must not be lifted until the implementation of the final agreement; removing them sooner could result in their collapse and the loss of the West's principal leverage against Iran before the end of the talks.
2013-11-08 00:00:00
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