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Iran: Deal in the Making, or Persian Carpet Ride?

(National Interest) Chuck Freilich - The best estimates today put Iran as little as two months from having enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb, but it is clear to all that Iran is almost there and disagreement is about months, not years. A diplomatic deal is clearly preferable for all sides, none more than Israel, which will be left with only two options should the negotiations fail: living with a nuclear Iran through a policy of deterrence, or a military strike, neither of which is a particularly attractive alternative. It is far from clear that Israel would be willing to accept the first option, even as part of a broader American strategy of deterrence and containment, and a military strike will likely achieve no more than a two to three year postponement of the Iranian program; Iran already has the technology and the various installations could be rebuilt within this period of time. Most analysts appear to believe today that a complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program is not achievable, and that if we are to reach any agreement that caps and rolls it back, but does not completely eliminate it, Iran will have to be allowed to retain an enrichment capability at the civil level. For Israel the stakes are existential, but a perfect agreement may be the enemy of a problematic but acceptable one. A favorable final agreement that not only the P5+1 but Israel and the Sunni Arab states could live with would have to ensure that Iran remains at least two to three years from a breakout capability, hopefully a sufficient amount of time for the international community to respond to a renewed Iranian nuclear program. The writer, a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School, was a deputy national-security adviser in Israel.
2013-11-15 00:00:00
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