Daily Alert Archives

Assessing the P5+1 Talks with Iran

(BICOM) Michael Herzog and Emily Landau - Michael Herzog: The buzz in the region is about lack of U.S. resolve, that the U.S. is not sufficiently reliable here, and that the international community is eager to go for a deal, even if it is a problematic deal. This leads to two main developments. First, Gulf states are reaching out to Israel for dialogue because they fear not only Iran's nuclear program, but Iran being allowed to continue with its hegemonic ambitions, even being emboldened by the deal, and that they will be left alone to deal with it. Second, you see regional states now reaching out to other international actors aside from the U.S. You see Egypt talking with Russia about a major arms deal; you see Turkey considering China for a major air defense system; you Saudi Arabia developing ties with France. If there is an endgame deal after six months, Israel will evaluate it and make its decisions. If there is no deal after six months, Israel will be in a position to say it gave the process a chance but it failed, and that it can rely on diplomacy no longer. Emily Landau: The P5+1 have leverage over Iran, which has not been the case for years. Iran needs a negotiated deal and it cannot get sanctions relief without international cooperation. This is a transformation in the negotiations dynamic and it is important the P5+1 realizes this. Before the French intervention during the last round of talks, the Arak clause was problematic, proposing that Iran could not commission the facility but could continue construction in the next six months. This was no concession at all for Iran; they never planned to commission the facility within six months. One of the P5+1's stated goals was to freeze the situation for six months. It is therefore strange they are not insisting on a freeze on enrichment of uranium up to 3.5%, as they are insisting on a freeze up to 20%. Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog was chief of staff and senior aide to four former Israeli ministers of defense. Dr. Emily Landau is director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Project at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
2013-11-22 00:00:00
Full Article