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The "Geneva 2" Negotiations on the Syrian Civil War

(Institute for National Security Studies) Benedetta Berti - While the humanitarian situation in Syria has gotten worse, none of the warring parties is substantially closer today to a military victory than at the time of the Geneva 1 talks in June 2012, despite a number of tactical victories by the regime. Geneva 2 was convened by the international community to discuss the actualization of the Geneva 1 plan, aimed at implementing a ceasefire and moving toward the establishment of a "transitional governing body" selected on the basis of "mutual consent" between the regime and the opposition. However, the chances that these ambitious objectives will be fulfilled in the coming days are exceptionally grim, first and foremost because the parties lack any reciprocal trust, and second, because their respective demands reflect entirely opposite positions. Moreover, the internationally recognized "representative of the Syrian people," the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, has continued to lose clout within Syria. Given this discouraging outlook, the Geneva 2 talks should be focused on providing some measure of relief to the Syrian population by focusing on ensuring full humanitarian access. Negotiating a ceasefire starting with the besieged city of Aleppo, along with a prisoner exchange, as recently proposed by the regime, should also be discussed. The writer is a research fellow at INSS.
2014-01-24 00:00:00
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