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Will Syria's Chemical Weapons Arsenal Be Eliminated?

(Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham - Syria is now running two months behind schedule in removing its chemical arsenal and it is apparent that the June 30 deadline will not be met. Assad's commitment to eliminate his chemical weapons arsenal bolsters his position considerably, as he is the only person capable of carrying out the destruction orders. This means that prolonging the elimination process could preserve Assad's position. This is likely an incentive for Assad to drag out the process, and buys him time to salvage some of the arsenal, either inside Syria or by smuggling the weapons to Iran, Russia, or Hizbullah. The international community must ask what portion of Syria's huge chemical weapons cache Assad intends to retain and hide, and where he is likely to hide them. Iran would likely prefer to preserve considerable portions of Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles and transfer them to Iran or Hizbullah rather than see them destroyed. Lastly, Syria has been developing biological weapons since the 1980s; its biological weapons depots must be dealt with. The writer, a senior research associate at the BESA Center, is a former senior intelligence analyst in the IDF and the Israel Ministry of Defense.
2014-03-05 00:00:00
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