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Regional Implications of a Nuclear Deal with Iran

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Dennis Ross - Amb. Dennis Ross told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 12, 2014: America's readiness to negotiate a deal with the Islamic Republic on its nuclear program is a source of deep concern among our traditional friends in the Middle East. For the Arabs, the fear is that the deal with come at their expense, with the United States increasingly seeing Iran as a partner. For the Israelis, the worry is that we will conclude a deal that leaves the Iranians as a threshold nuclear state - capable of breaking out to nuclear weapons at a time when we might be distracted by another international crisis. I still believe the prospects of an agreement are probably less than the 50% figure President Obama cited late last year. Basic conceptual gaps remain, with the Iranians still believing that their limited offers of transparency should be sufficient to satisfy our concerns about the peaceful character of their nuclear program. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei does not appear to understand that there can be no roll-back in sanctions without a roll-back and deep reduction in the Iranian nuclear program - meaning Iranian centrifuges must be dramatically reduced in number, much of the accumulated enriched uranium must be shipped out of the country, Fordow must be shut down or completely disabled, and the Arak heavy water plant must be converted so it cannot produce plutonium. For the Saudis, Iran already represents an existential threat even without nuclear weapons. The Saudis, Emiratis, and others see an aggressive Iranian pursuit of regional hegemony. From a Saudi standpoint, the Iranians are encircling them - seeking to gain dominance in, and the ability to threaten them overtly and covertly from, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
2014-06-13 00:00:00
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