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Regional Nuclear Plans in the Aftermath of an Iran Deal

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen - If an Iran deal is reached and Gulf leaders dislike it, preventing the proliferation of nuclear technology in the region will be a considerable challenge. In April 2009, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia famously told U.S. special envoy Dennis Ross that "if [the Iranians] get nuclear weapons, we will get nuclear weapons." In Abu Dhabi, the lead sheikhdom of the United Arab Emirates, its first two nuclear facilities are under construction and due to start up in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Abu Dhabi obtained the reactors from South Korea. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed, the effective ruler of Abu Dhabi, is now said to be livid at the prospect that Tehran's quasi-nuclear status will be confirmed by an agreement not worth, in his mind, the paper it is written on. One of the clearest signals of how Gulf leaders view Iran diplomacy was Saudi Arabia's decision to show off two of its nuclear-capable missiles at a military parade in April. The weapons were acquired from China in the 1980s. Among the dignitaries at the Saudi parade was Pakistan's military chief Gen. Raheel Sharif. Even if the Obama administration hopes that an Iran deal will squash the prospect of Riyadh borrowing or buying nuclear warheads from Pakistan, it must also consider the distinct possibility that the Saudis will ask Islamabad for enrichment technology. Simon Henderson is director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. Olli Heinonen is a former deputy director-general for safeguards at the IAEA.
2014-11-24 00:00:00
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