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(Carnegie Moscow Center) Alexei Arbatov - Drastic changes in the political situation in the world have had a decisive impact on the parties' positions at the negotiating table on the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian ruling elite probably believes that the situation is far better for Tehran now than it was a year ago, with the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany finding themselves in tough opposition to Russia after the eruption of the Ukrainian conflict. A deal with Tehran would pave the way for Iranian oil exports that will lead to a further decline in global energy prices that the Russian economy heavily relies on. Besides, Iran is capable of largely substituting for Russia as a source of oil and gas for Europe, which would deprive Moscow of a key instrument for advancing its interests in relations with the EU and Ukraine. Russia is not sabotaging the negotiations, but hardly believes that it should be helping the West to straighten out the differences with Iran. 2014-12-23 00:00:00Full Article
The Iranian Saga: a Pause or an Impasse?
(Carnegie Moscow Center) Alexei Arbatov - Drastic changes in the political situation in the world have had a decisive impact on the parties' positions at the negotiating table on the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian ruling elite probably believes that the situation is far better for Tehran now than it was a year ago, with the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany finding themselves in tough opposition to Russia after the eruption of the Ukrainian conflict. A deal with Tehran would pave the way for Iranian oil exports that will lead to a further decline in global energy prices that the Russian economy heavily relies on. Besides, Iran is capable of largely substituting for Russia as a source of oil and gas for Europe, which would deprive Moscow of a key instrument for advancing its interests in relations with the EU and Ukraine. Russia is not sabotaging the negotiations, but hardly believes that it should be helping the West to straighten out the differences with Iran. 2014-12-23 00:00:00Full Article
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