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Iran and the International Community: Moving toward a Comprehensive Deal?

(Strategic Survey for Israel 2014-15 - Institute for National Security Studies) Emily B. Landau and Shimon Stein - The strategic concessions that have been made so far have come primarily, if not solely, from the direction of the P5+1. Some claim that President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif are willing to accept the P5+1 offer on the table, but Supreme Leader Khamenei objects. At the end of the day, however, it is clear that the Supreme Leader makes the decisions, so whether the leadership is united or divided is less relevant than the fact that Khamenei in any case remains defiant. Whatever the outcome, the unfortunate reality is that any deal with Iran will almost certainly focus solely on physically keeping Iran at a distance from breakout rather than on Iran's intentions. Since there is no indication that Iran's intentions in the nuclear realm have changed, it is nearly certain that it is only a matter of time before Iran resumes its efforts to acquire a military nuclear capability, even with the best comprehensive deal. Emily Landau directs the Arms Control and Regional Security Project at INSS, where former Israeli ambassador Shimon Stein is a senior research fellow.
2015-02-16 00:00:00
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