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The Strategic Genius of Iran's Supreme Leader

(Washington Post) Ray Takeyh - After years of defiance, Khamenei seems to appreciate that his most advantageous path to nuclear arms is through an agreement. To continue to build up his atomic infrastructure without the protective umbrella of an agreement exposes Iran to economic sanctions and the possibility of military retribution. As Khamenei held firm, however, the great powers grew wobbly. With the advent of the Joint Plan of Action in November 2013, Washington conceded to Iran's enrichment at home and agreed that eventually that enrichment capacity could be industrialized. The most important concession that Khamenei's negotiators have won is the idea of a sunset clause. Upon the expiration of that clause, there would be no legal limits on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Moreover, once a deal is transacted, the most essential sanctions against Iran will evaporate. It is unlikely that Europeans, much less China or Russia, would agree to their reconstitution should Iran be caught cheating. Iran's achievements today are a tribute to the genius of Khamenei. He has routinely entered negotiations with the weakest hand and emerged in the strongest position. The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2015-03-02 00:00:00
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