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Recognizing Iran as a Nuclear Threshold State: Implications for Israel and the Middle East

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Yoel Guzansky and Udi Dekel - The Iranian leadership seeks an agreement that, in addition to leaving it with access to its nuclear technology, also rewards it with both removal of the sanctions and international recognition of its special status in the Middle East. The status of a threshold state will leave Iran with the possibility of arming itself with nuclear weapons within a short time span, when it decides to break out to military nuclear capability. Recognition of its status as a threshold state will help Iran expand and enhance influence in the region, enable it to provide a "defensive umbrella" to the allies and non-state proxies in the region that it supports, and grant it "blackmail power" vis-a-vis third parties. Removal of most or all of the sanctions imposed against it will provide Iran with resources to promote its regional goals and make it less economically vulnerable. Above all, the international community will likely fear that a challenging policy toward the Iranian regime in the face of its negative behavior in the Middle East and inside Iran could cause the ayatollahs to breach the nuclear agreement and cross the nuclear threshold. Yoel Guzansky, a senior research fellow at INSS, is a former Iran Coordinator in Israel's National Security Council. Brig. Gen. (ret.) Udi Dekel, managing director of INSS, was head of the Strategic Planning Division in the Planning Directorate of the IDF General Staff.
2015-03-26 00:00:00
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