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The Iranian Deal in Middle Eastern Geopolitics

(The Hill) James F. Jeffrey - What are the core geostrategic elements of the nuclear agreement with Iran? Iran (1) maintains its status as a nuclear threshold state; (2) receives at some point almost total sanctions relief; and (3) ducks formal culpability for its violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) with its nuclear weapons efforts and secret nuclear sites by keeping all of its nuclear infrastructure, even if dramatically modified. The administration repeatedly hints that the nuclear agreement will encourage Iran to move toward "normal country" status. A metamorphosis of Iran toward normalcy cannot be ruled out. But apart from Germany and Japan after devastating defeats, such "flips" are rare. The deal does not work in geostrategic terms if it is not clear to all, including the Iranians, that the international community will act forcefully by all means necessary to block a nuclear device. The most important step to contain Iran, stabilize the region and win acceptance for the nuclear agreement is to threaten in advance use of force if Iran violates the agreement. Congress should help by passing in advance an authorization for the use of military force against an Iran in violation, and the president should specify what red line, if crossed, would provoke a military response. Such steps could defuse American opposition to the agreement and deter regional allies from "going it alone." The writer, a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor with a special focus on Iran, and Ambassador to Iraq, Turkey, and Albania.
2015-04-09 00:00:00
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