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Obama Rolls the Dice on Iran

(Washington Post) Jackson Diehl - The weakest point in President Obama's defense of his deal with Iran is his claim that "it is a good deal even if Iran doesn't change at all." Let's consider that scenario. An Iran that does not change will reap hundreds of billions of dollars in fresh revenue from the lifting of sanctions, and it will surely use much of that to fund its ongoing military adventures in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It will supply more weapons to Hamas and other radical Palestinian groups, and invest more in its long-range missiles, cyberweapons and other military technologies not covered by the agreement. It will continue developing advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment and after a decade will begin installing them. Iran will still seek domination of the Middle East and the elimination of Israel, but with far greater resources and the capability to build a nuclear weapon at any time of its choosing. And the odds of preventing a nuclear Iran will be considerably worse than they are now. So let's be honest: Everything depends on Obama's hope that nuclear detente will change Iran. But today it's difficult to find an expert who believes Iran will soon evolve into a more benign power. Present and former senior administration officials I consulted said they expected the Iranian regime would remain the same in the next few years, or maybe get worse.
2015-04-13 00:00:00
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