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How the Threat of a Military Option Against Iran Lost Its Coercive Power

(Wall Street Journal) Ray Takeyh and Roger Zakheim - Speaking about Iran's nuclear program last month, President Obama said that "a military solution will not fix it, even if the United States participates." Such denigrations of the deterrent power of force have long been noticed in Iran. The U.S. administration is engaged in sensitive negotiations while systematically depriving itself of leverage. Military force may not be the ideal solution to the Iran nuclear issue, but it is an indispensable backdrop to viable diplomacy. In 2003, the Islamic Republic agreed to suspend all its nuclear activities. After the fear of being the target of American retribution dissipated in 2005, Iran resumed its nuclear activities. Had Iranians sensed that the U.S. was prepared to enforce its "red lines" with force, then they may have been less inclined to dismiss American mandates and the IAEA demands for access to atomic sites. Signaling that we have no intent to use force weakens our deterrence posture. Moreover, it has probably helped convince Iran that it can sign a deal and have a nuclear weapon, too. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Roger Zakheim is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
2015-06-12 00:00:00
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