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A Moment before the Iran Deal

(Times of Israel) Emily B. Landau - This negotiation is fundamentally a game of compellence, in which Iran is being forced to comply or else face punishment. Iran is trying to hold onto its option of becoming a nuclear weapons state, in violation of the NPT, and the international negotiators are tasked with stopping it. The interests of the two sides are zero sum, and only one side will win. Iran's interest in coming back to the table in 2013 was only to lift sanctions - nothing changed regarding its nuclear interest. The P5+1 made a huge mistake by projecting an eagerness for a deal. By taking the U.S. threat of military consequences virtually off the table, Iran knows it has seen the worst that the international community can do to it in terms of pressure, and this is a major boost to its leverage. In fact, the P5+1 have boxed themselves in: they have projected to Iran that this crisis can only be resolved through negotiations, so all Iran has to do is sit tight. P5+1 concessions are already rolling in. The writer heads the arms control program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
2015-07-13 00:00:00
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