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The Strategic Impact of the Iran Deal

(American Interest) Walter Russell Mead - Whatever the Iran agreement (JCPOA) does in terms of the nuclear program, when it comes to the conventional balance in the region the JCPOA appears to strengthen Iran. The end of sanctions does not just result in a "windfall" gain to Iran as frozen assets are released; it also adds substantial and growing amounts to Iran's national income as normal trade relations resume, as Iranian oil production expands, and as access to markets for new technology and spare parts increases the productivity of Iranian society. In the short term, this means that Iran will have more money with which to support regional allies like the Assad regime in Damascus; in the medium term, as conventional weapons restrictions are lifted, Iran will have the opportunity to strengthen both defensive and offensive arms capabilities; in the medium to long term, Iran's greater economic clout will substantially increase its political weight both in the region and in world affairs, giving it new allies and making a return to sanctions and isolation increasingly unlikely. The JCPOA strengthens Iran's hand by reducing its isolation and adding significantly to its economic resources. Unless this effect is offset by a much more robust policy of containing Iran, the JCPOA will make the Middle East as a whole less secure. The writer is professor of foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College and professor of American foreign policy at Yale University. This excerpt is from his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on August 5, 2015.
2015-08-06 00:00:00
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