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Questions and Answers about the Iranian Nuclear Agreement

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - The deal leaves Iran having enough fissile material to "break out" to a bomb within six months, and not within one year as the Administration claims (because the excess centrifuges and infrastructure are not destroyed). It also does not efficiently prevent a "sneak out" to a bomb because of the difficulty to inspect undeclared sites. The threat of a credible military option is what has deterred Iran from racing to the bomb so far. If Iran does attempt to break out and military force is used effectively, then from Iran's standpoint there would be no point in rehabilitating the project since it would know that a decision to thwart its nuclear ambitions had already been taken once and will be taken again if necessary. President Obama says that Israel can be compensated for the increased dangers from the deal with weaponry and by boosting U.S. military aid and commitment to its security. But no compensation can suffice for paving the way to a nuclear arsenal for a country that constantly reiterates its commitment to Israel's destruction. The claim that rejection of the deal by Congress will speed up Iran's march toward the bomb and hence inevitably lead to war is devoid of logic. If the deal is voted down in Congress, Iran will still have an incentive to abide by the spirit of the deal since Iran repeatedly declares that it has no interest in nuclear weapons, and the deal's implementation will likely lead to the lifting of at least Russian and Chinese sanctions and possibly those of other countries. Ramping up U.S. sanctions would probably cause Iran to show greater moderation and augmenting the credible threat to use force if necessary would probably keep deterring Iran from attempting a breakout. So far, all of the Administration's prophecies of doom whenever measures were taken against Iran have turned out to be false. It is also worth recalling that the U.S. Administration strongly opposed the oil and financial sanctions and began to impose them only when, under pressure from Congress, it had no choice. The confidence the Administration demonstrates in the ability of intelligence to detect Iranian cheating is curious. So far, the record of American intelligence (and that of Israeli intelligence, too) when it comes to revealing foreign nuclear programs, including those of Iran, is far from impressive (one thinks of North Korea, Syria, Iraq, India, and Pakistan). The writer was formerly Director General of the Israel Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research and Analysis and Production Division of IDF Military Intelligence.
2015-08-27 00:00:00
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