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The Nuclear Agreement Boosts Iran's Missile Threat

(Defense News) Uzi Rubin - One of the most significant criticisms of the Iran nuclear accord (JCPOA) is the apparent absence of any limitation on Iran's potential nuclear delivery systems, most notably its ballistic missiles. The deal's supporters say its provisions continue to restrict Iran from building "missiles designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads" for the next eight years. This is contested by Iran's foreign minister, who maintains that the JCPOA has nothing to do with Iran's missiles because they are not designed to carry nuclear weapons. So will the nuclear deal with Iran reduce its missile threat, or will it leave Iran free to build nuclear-capable missiles to its heart's content? Some ballistic missiles were designed to carry nuclear weapons but, if needed, are capable of carrying conventional warheads. Similarly, many ballistic missiles built for conventional missions, such as the ex-Soviet Scud, are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Thus, for Iran, the JCPOA limitation on "missiles designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads" is irrelevant because all of Iran's medium-range missiles are dual-purpose. So it stands to reason that the nuclear deal is not going to block or even slow down any of Iran's missile programs. If anything, the money released by the JCPOA is bound to accelerate them. Not to worry, claim the nuclear deal advocates: Iran's conventional missiles are inaccurate. The truth is that Iran is introducing high-precision capabilities to its entire gamut of ballistic weapons. Anthony Cordesman predicted that by 2016 Iran will deploy a 1,700-km.-range, precise, terminally guided variant of the Shahab 3. Right on cue, a flight test of a terminally guided version of the Shahab 3 appeared in a recent Iranian video clip from Sept. 27, 2015. In the Gulf region, shorter-range precision missiles that can hit individual aircraft shelters in air force bases are already deployed by Iran. Such precision missiles are significant game changers: The same missiles can also hit and destroy critical national infrastructure such as power stations, desalination plants, and nuclear power stations - causing Chernobyl-scale disaster. This is an existential threat by any other name. Iran's missile threat is fast growing in quantity and quality. With the end of the sanctions regime, Iran is bound to accelerate its ability to draw on the latest Western technology, facilitated by over-the-counter sales to the now-rehabilitated Islamic Republic of Iran. The writer is founder of Israel's Missile Defense Organization.
2015-10-07 00:00:00
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