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Will a Post-Deal Iran Attain Regional Hegemony?

(Fathom-BICOM) Jonathan Spyer - The most aggressive alliance active in the Middle East is the bloc of states and movements gathered around the Islamic Republic of Iran. With the prospect of release of impounded funds as part of sanctions relief, Iran is well placed to continue its support of proxy political-military organizations in a variety of regional locations, in pursuit of Iranian strategic goals. Yet in all areas of Iranian regional "outreach" - including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Palestinians - while Iran's intervention has prevented the defeat and eclipse of its local ally, its intervention has ensured continued conflict. Thus, the notion that a post-nuclear-deal Iran can form a partner for stability in the region is deeply flawed. Iran is likely to increase its support for its proxies across the region, and the net effect of this will be to increase regional disorder. However, because of the limitations of Iranian methods and the sectarian nature of the conflicts in question (which means Iran finds it very difficult to pursue alliances with non-Shia Arabs), it is unlikely that this will result in the attainment of Iranian regional hegemony. The writer is director of the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
2015-11-11 00:00:00
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