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Halting Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program: Iranian Vulnerabilities and Western Policy Options

[Institute for Contemporary Affairs/Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs] Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - Despite Iran's enormous oil and gas reserves, ironically, one of its most glaring areas of vulnerability is in the economic sphere. According to an analysis by the World Bank, Iran must create 700,000 jobs per year, but only 500,000 new jobs have been created annually at the economy's current growth rate. Iranian vulnerabilities in the oil sector may in fact be growing. Iran needs to invest about $10 billion annually in its energy sector to maintain current output from its oilfields; however, Tehran is only spending a third of that amount. For that reason, Iran's oil minister, Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh, announced in September 2006 that the country's oil production could drop 13 percent annually unless there is new investment in its energy infrastructure. There are predictions that at that rate Iranian oil exports will shrink to zero by 2015. It is essential to recall that economic sanctions take a very long time to have a decisive effect. Yet Iran, according to a June 2007 assessment by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, is "speeding up its enrichment capacity." In early February 2007, IAEA reported that Iran was operating only 328 centrifuges for uranium enrichment, and by May 2007 IAEA was already reporting 1,312 operating centrifuges. Moreover, IAEA was privately assessing that 8,000 operating centrifuges would be in place by the end of the year. For significant sanctions to be effective and genuinely sharpen the regime's dilemma, they must be accompanied by a credible threat of military force against the nuclear program and, to the extent necessary, against other targets in Iran as well.
2007-07-05 01:00:00
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