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Deterring Iran: Time for a New Mindset

(Fathom-BICOM) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog - The IAEA's announcement to close the file on Iran's past military-related nuclear activities was a political decision primarily motivated by international will to quickly move towards implementing the deal while focusing on the future rather than the past. Indeed, Iranian threats to suspend the deal's implementation should the file remain open probably played an important role in the IAEA ruling. Thus, in the first post-deal test of Western resolve, the West blinked first. The message to Iran is that brinkmanship works and that the West is deterred by Iranian threats more than the other way round - because Western desire to see the deal proceed far outweighs its political will to strictly enforce its terms. Since the deal was finalized, Iran has invested more in its regional hegemonic ambitions - without any real push-back from the West. Having already increased its current annual defense budget by over 30% compared to the previous year, Iran recently announced its intention to further increase this budget in its coming five-year development plan and to embark on an arms procurement spree, especially in Russia. During the nuclear negotiations the West primarily avoided robust action to counteract Iran's aggressive meddling in regional conflicts for fear of undermining the deal. Yet as the deal goes into effect, it is time the West adopts a different mindset and realizes that the most critical element for fortifying the deal and imposing Iranian compliance is deterrence. As implementation of the agreement begins, the West will have to invest more, not less, attention, resources and most of all resolve in deterring Iran. The writer is a former chief of staff to Israel's minister of defense.
2016-01-21 00:00:00
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