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Moderation in Iran? Don't Get Your Hopes Up

(Los Angeles Times) Aaron David Miller - The Iran nuclear accord will consolidate the government's power, not undermine it. Iran got access to billions of dollars in frozen assets, the prospect of billions more in trade deals with Europe and Asia, and the capacity to develop nukes down the road if it wants to. An improved economy co-opts pressure for change in Iran, even though it is the elites, not the broader public, that will be the primary beneficiaries. At the top of Iran's power structure sits supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who has no intention of letting the U.S. or Rouhani slip significant change through the back door of the nuclear agreement. Khamenei will ensure that there is no serious normalization with Washington, and that interactions with the Americans are purely functional. The writer is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
2016-02-29 00:00:00
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