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Moderation Postponed in Iran

(American Interest) Walter Russell Mead - Somehow all those plucky moderates elected in Iran don't seem to be having much impact on actual decisions as Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, an ultraconservative who called for the execution of opposition activists, was chosen on Tuesday to lead Iran's Assembly of Experts. What's really going on in Iran has almost nothing to do with the happy Beltway talk about peaceable mullahs and the kinder, gentler theocracy they aspire to create. Unfortunately, hardline values are hard-wired into the Iranian regime and Iranian foreign policy, and no White House spin can make that grim reality go away. Iran is a multi-ethnic state where Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Arabs, Baluchis and many others share the territory with ethnic Persians, who comprise about 60% of the total population, but the large majority of Iran's citizens are Shi'a. Shi'a identity is the ideological bond that keeps the country together, more than Persian nationalism. If Tehran sacrificed its hard Shi'a edge, it would face the same kind of centrifugal forces that have torn apart many other multiethnic conglomerate states in recent decades such as the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. But if Iran's unity is linked to hardline Shi'a politics, its international position is even more tightly wedded to hatred of America and Israel. Iran needs to legitimate its presence as an aspiring hegemon in a mostly Arab, mostly Sunni part of the world. This is where the rage against the U.S. and Israel comes in. Iran positions itself as the only true leader of Islamic "resistance" to American imperialism and Zionist aggression. If Iran drops the anti-Americanism and anti-Zionism from its foreign policy, it doesn't have an ideological leg to stand on in the struggle for hearts and minds in the modern Middle East. The writer is professor of foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College and professor of American foreign policy at Yale University.
2016-05-31 00:00:00
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