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Why the Western-Backed Assault on Islamic State in Iraq and Syria Is Failing

(New Statesman-UK) Shiraz Maher - Ever since the latest offensive against IS began in Syria and Iraq in May, it has become clear that the group will not concede territory easily around Raqqa - the nerve center of IS operations in Syria - or elsewhere. All of its major urban centers remain well-fortified. Few observers expect them to fall any day soon. IS has too much invested in Raqqa, as well as Mosul in Iraq. Occupying the cities fuels the group's prestige by projecting the impression of viable statehood. IS has long anticipated a campaign against its Syrian base and has fortified Raqqa with trenches and landmines. What makes the fight against IS even more challenging is that its fighters are not easily disheartened. They are resolved to fight until victory or martyrdom - and for them both outcomes represent success. Islamic State has repeatedly invoked the vulnerability of the Sunnis to justify its violence. Videos released on social media from the latest assault on Fallujah appear to show how incoming Shia fighters have beaten and tortured Sunni civilians. The rapid deterioration in sectarian relations that followed the 2003 invasion of Iraq explains how IS was able to capture Sunni areas of Iraq with such ease. Ordinary residents do not necessarily agree with the authoritarian strictures of the IS regime, but they mostly understand them. These latest outrages from incoming Shia-dominated al-Hashd al-Shaabi fighters will only fuel the belief among Sunnis that they are best served by Sunni administrations - however brutal. That is the story behind so much of IS' strength today. Remove that constituency, and the group would collapse. The writer is deputy director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King's College London.
2016-06-24 00:00:00
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