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Why ISIS Fears Israel

(National Interest) Graham Allison - Israelis live much closer to ISIS than do Americans. ISIS has pledged to conquer the Jewish state and incorporate it into its core caliphate. The Israel Defense Forces has embraced a strategy of preventing ISIS attacks through patient, vigilant deterrence, seeking to persuade ISIS not to attack it by credibly threatening to retaliate. For the IDF, ISIS is just one more terrorist group - one that does not even make the top half of Israel's threat matrix. As former chief of military intelligence Amos Yadlin put it, "At the end of the day, we are talking about several thousand unrestrained terrorists riding pickup trucks and firing with Kalashnikovs and machine guns." The IDF constantly worries about whether its deterrent is sufficiently strong. Red lines are clearly, publicly and repeatedly announced by top Israeli officials not only in Hebrew, but also in Arabic. Credibility is enhanced by taking "limited offensive actions to signal that the 'rules of the game' have been broken." Of course, deterrence is not the only strand in Israel's strategy to counter its enemies. Full-spectrum prevention of terrorist attacks includes detection (deep penetration to identify threats), defense (such as the Iron Dome missile-defense system and secure walls or fences on all borders), and decisive defeat (when, despite best efforts, attackers succeed). Israel has conveyed three "red lines" for Iran, Assad, and terrorist groups in Syria: no attacks on Israel; no transfer of advanced conventional weapons to terrorist groups that threaten Israel; and no transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups. The "dozens" of Israeli airstrikes in Syria that Prime Minister Netanyahu has acknowledged are meant to remind all adversaries of the cost of violations of its rules. On its immediate border, Israel faces two ISIS affiliates: Sinai Province in Egypt and the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. Despite their capability to attack at a moment's notice, both have exercised restraint. As a German journalist who was embedded with ISIS in 2014 explained, "The only country ISIS fears is Israel. They told me they know the Israeli army is too strong for them." The writer is director of the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans.
2016-08-09 00:00:00
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