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Egypt Rearms

(Strategic Assessment-Institute for National Security Studies) Yiftah S. Shapir and Kashish Parpiani - On June 26, 2016, the Egyptian navy's new Mistral amphibious attack ship, Gamal Abdel Nasser, arrived in the port of Alexandria. Her sister ship, Anwar el-Sadat arrived on October 6, 2016, marking another step in Egypt's drive in recent years for massive rearmament. Egypt launched a massive rearmament program in late 2012 as soon as Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was appointed Minister of Defense by President Mohamed Morsi. Just one month after his appointment, Egypt announced that Germany had agreed to sell it two Type-209 submarines. When the Egyptian military overthrew the Morsi regime in July 2013, the Obama administration froze further military aid as an expression of dissatisfaction with Egypt's military crackdown on civilian demonstrations. The freeze was gradually overturned in 2015, but Egypt has increasingly turned to other arms exporters, such as France and Russia, to offset its dependence on the U.S. While it is conceivable that by its large arms purchases Egypt intended to send a message to the U.S. and diversify its procurement sources, the extent and diversity of Egypt's lavish shopping spree cannot be just about sending a political message. Egypt's threats are mostly from lightly armed insurgents: in Sinai, and along its borders with Libya. It also has some disputes with Sudan. But none of these adversaries has a strong military, and therefore these threats do not explain the need for the number of advanced combat aircraft under consideration. They do not explain the need for six new corvettes and one large frigate, and above all, they do not explain the need for two amphibious attack ships designed for long-haul power projection. The large arms acquisitions should be seen in the larger context of el-Sisi's doctrine and vision for Egypt, in place from the moment he assumed power. This vision sees Egypt resuming its former position as a regional power in the Middle East. Egypt's current rearmament should not worry Israel in the near term. However, Israel cannot avoid seeing any such rearmament as a potential threat. The acquisition of modern aircraft such as the Rafale and the MiG-29M will erode Israel's qualitative edge in the air. Of particular military concern for Israel are the Antey-2500 SAMs, which could affect the Israeli air force's freedom of action even over Israeli air space, and the Moskit missiles on board the Molniya corvettes, which could affect the freedom of action of Israel's navy. Lt. Col. (ret.) Yiftah S. Shapir is a senior research fellow and head of the Middle East Military Balance Project at INSS, where Kashish Parpiani was an intern.
2016-11-23 00:00:00
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