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Changing the U.S. Approach to Iran

(National Interest) Emily Landau and Shimon Stein - The impulse to scrap the Iran nuclear deal is understandable, but at this point renouncing the deal would be a lose-lose proposition. Iran has already pocketed over $100 billion in sanctions relief, the decision would cause friction with the other P5+1 states, and Iran would presumably be free to resume its program with no restrictions. Demanding renegotiation of the deal is also perilous. Renegotiation would take years, and what leverage would the international powers have to work with to pressure Iran, after having lifted the sanctions? However, much can be achieved simply by changing the U.S. approach to the deal and to Iran, and by altering the rhetoric. The Trump administration should press to end the secrecy surrounding many of Iran's nuclear activities and plans, reminding all that as a known and proven NPT violator, Iran lost its confidentiality privileges. Given the absence of any convergence of interests between the U.S. and Iran, the administration should set the ground rules for interactions with Iran, and preconditions for any future relations. Discussion in Europe today of steps to normalize relations with Iran is premature and misguided; it projects weakness vis-a-vis Iran's aggression and provocations, and lack of political will to confront Iran with determination. Since the Iran deal was announced, Iran has displayed emboldened behavior: stepping up its missile program, including testing of precision-guided missiles that can carry a nuclear payload, and possible cooperation with North Korea on ICBM capabilities; increasing its military role in fighting in Syria and committing barbaric crimes against the Syrian population; repeated provocations against the U.S. Navy in the Gulf; continued holding of Iranian American prisoners as bargaining chips to squeeze more money; and continued sharp anti-American rhetoric. Defense Secretary-designate Gen. James Mattis told Congress that Iran is the biggest destabilizing force in the Middle East, and that the U.S. must have a strategy for confronting its regional hegemonic aspirations. He views the malign influence of Iran in the region as on the rise, rendering Iran a growing threat. Emily Landau heads the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Former Israeli ambassador to Germany Shimon Stein is a senior research fellow at INSS.
2017-01-20 00:00:00
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