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The Delusion of the Iran Nuclear Deal

(Wall Street Journal) Mark Dubowitz - Rigorously enforcing the Iran deal is a delusion: The greater the focus on enforcement, the higher the likelihood that Iran will emerge with nuclear weapons. The nuclear deal contains limited, temporary and reversible constraints that disappear over time. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran's uranium and plutonium pathways to atomic weapons expand over time. The deal allows for Iran to ramp up the testing of advanced centrifuges in seven years and install these centrifuges in its Natanz enrichment facility in nine years. Breakout time to enrich one bomb's worth of fissile material to nuclear grade will then drop from one year to months and then weeks. In less than 15 years, Iran will emerge with an industrial-size nuclear program with a near-zero breakout capability and much easier ways to sneak around restrictions. After the disappearance of the arms embargo 3 1/2 years from now and the missile embargo in 6 1/2 years, Tehran can acquire advanced conventional weapons and further expand its long-range ballistic-missile program to include intercontinental ballistic missiles. President Trump must address the Iranian threat the way Ronald Reagan treated the Soviet one. The U.S. needs a plan that uses both covert and overt economic, financial, political, diplomatic, cyber and military power to subvert and roll back the Iranian threat. The Trump administration also needs to reinvigorate the sanctions regime aimed at Iran's support for terrorism, ballistic-missile development, human-rights abuses, war crimes, and destabilizing activities in the Middle East. The writer is chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
2017-03-23 00:00:00
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