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Lessons on Iran from North Korea's Nuclear Threat

(Institute for National Security Studies) Dr. Emily B. Landau - After years of failed negotiations, followed by eight years of an Obama administration policy of "strategic patience," North Korea is today a nuclear state, on the verge of being able to threaten the U.S. with a nuclear-tipped ICBM. When restrictions on Iran's nuclear infrastructure expire under the JCPOA nuclear deal, Iran will be stronger than it was before the negotiations began and will have a much more advanced nuclear infrastructure. Iran, virtually unhindered, is also rapidly developing its own ballistic missile program. There is no short-term benefit from the JCPOA if these initial years are not used effectively to confront Iran for the sake of the long term. Putting pressure on Iran is a proven path to altering its behavior in the nuclear realm - it is the toughness of the biting sanctions from 2012 that brought Iran to the table in 2013. Replacing the pressure tactic with hopes of change in Iran - especially when pinned on the strengthening of President Rouhani - is misguided: the Iranian president has not demonstrated significant moderation either internally or with regard to Iran's regional behavior. If the P5+1 continue to celebrate the JCPOA-induced delay while relaxing their vigilance and pressure, they will ultimately face a nuclear threat as intractable as that of North Korea. The writer is director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the INSS.
2017-03-30 00:00:00
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