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Syria Has Effectively Ceased to Exist

(Foreign Policy) Jonathan Spyer - Six years into the Syrian war, the survival of President Bashar al-Assad's regime is ensured - but it has become something of a facade. The interests of Russia and Iran from above, and the local concerns of a myriad array of pro-regime irregular militias from below, are the decisive factors - not the decisions of the country's nominal rulers. The rebellion had been driven out of eastern Aleppo, seemingly paving the way for the defeat of the insurgency. But five months later, the rebels still appear far from collapse. Syria is today divided into seven enclaves: the territory controlled by the regime, three separate areas of rebel control, two Kurdish cantons, and the Islamic State area. The regime cannot now be militarily defeated, but neither has it any clear road to victory. Decisions made by Assad and those around him will not be the decisive factor in determining Syria's future. The writer is a senior research fellow at the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs, IDC Herzliya.
2017-05-23 00:00:00
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