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The North Korean Challenge: Insights for the Middle East

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov - North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un possesses an arsenal of 15-20 nuclear bombs, and now has proven his capability of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile. North Korea is continuing to develop its long-range capabilities, which will threaten population centers in the U.S., while at the same time miniaturizing nuclear warheads in order to mount them on long-range missiles. Israel is assessing the implications of the crisis, particularly with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. Concern exists that American restraint and continued provocative North Korean behavior would signal to Tehran that a country determined to cross nuclear red lines is able to do so, even in the face of American opposition. According to this model, it is worthwhile for Iran to continue developing its nuclear capabilities and its missile program in order to attain a nuclear deterrent. From Israel's perspective, it is necessary to resume a comprehensive dialogue with Washington (which has not taken place on a serious level since 2015), and to formulate a joint policy towards Iran's nuclear ambitions and the risks incurred by the JCPOA. It is also important to formulate a response to the possibility of the spread of knowledge and elements of the North Korean nuclear program to Iran or its allies in the region, as was the case with the nuclear reactor in Syria in the preceding decade. Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, former chief of Israeli military intelligence, heads the INSS, where Avner Golov is a research fellow.
2017-07-13 00:00:00
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