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Cease-Fire on Verge of Collapse

[Jerusalem Post] Barry Rubin - Hizballah says it will not disarm voluntarily and Lebanon says it will not disarm Hizballah unless it wants to be disarmed. Israel says that if Hizballah does return to its positions with weapons, the IDF will resume its offensive. In short, the whole basis of the cease-fire is on the verge of collapse. On a military level, Hizballah lost the war, despite their public relations successes. What we saw is actually fairly typical of wars historically. One side attacks using new techniques and weapons, at first scoring some successes. After a while, however, the other side adapts to these challenges and goes on to inflict heavy losses and take control of the battlefield. If the war restarts, Hizballah may face a two-front war. Lebanese Christians, Druze, and Sunnis, the majority of the population, are largely angry at how Hizballah dragged their country into a war and is increasingly subjugating it to Iran and Syria.
2006-08-18 01:00:00
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