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When Will the Next War in Gaza Begin?

(Israel Hayom) Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror - There is almost no way of predicting the moment when the other side will decide to attack. It is clear to Israel's rivals in both the north and the south that they will pay a very serious price for such an attack, and they must therefore have a very good reason should they take such a step. It seems logical to assume that it is only when the other side feels it has a genuine ability that Israel would find it difficult to contend with that they would contemplate going into battle. Therefore, it is precisely at a time when Israel is advancing a solution to the terror tunnel threat and Hamas has yet to find a solution to Israel's ability to intercept its rockets, that it makes no sense for Hamas to embark on an offensive campaign. My assessment that Hamas does not have game-changing weapons in its arsenal and that is why it seems likely to avoid an operation at this time. Will Hamas embark on an operation as a result of deterioration in the economic situation in Gaza? It doesn't seem like a logical move. No group has ever attacked Israel for such a reason, so why would this time be any different? And what would Hamas get out of the further destruction of Gaza and the serious harm inflicted on its people and industries following the operation? The economic situation that followed such an operation would certainly not be any improvement. Israel wants to avoid a humanitarian crisis in Gaza because it would be best to not have our close neighbors be in such a state. Although Hamas and PA President Mahmoud Abbas would be much more responsible for the crisis, the world would certainly blame Israel. However, the fighting will renew whenever Hamas decides it is interested in doing so, regardless of whether there is an improvement to Gaza's economy. The writer is former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel and former Head of Israel's National Security Council.
2018-02-14 00:00:00
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