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The Rebellion in Iran: Not a Temporary Phenomenon

(Modern Diplomacy) Prof. Ivan Sascha Sheehan - In late December 2017 and January 2018, the largest countrywide uprising in Iran since 2009 spread to 142 cities and towns in all 31 provinces. Tehran responded to the rebellion with brutality, but after two weeks of relative calm, more than a dozen Iranian cities were again scenes of protests on January 31 and February 1, with similar slogans that rejected the regime in its entirety. Meanwhile, there has been a steady stream of protests and strikes by laborers and victims of theft and fraud by state institutions. A careful review of the evidence clearly indicates that the protests were not a short-lived phenomenon with temporary impact. Rather, they marked a turning point and permanent change in the trend of events and political calculations in Iran. According to one school of thought, the clerics are isolated at home and are loathed by the Iranians, in particular by the youth. People are waiting for the first opportunity to express their wrath. Iran's foreign interventions and wars are not signs of strength. Rather, they are taking a big toll on the regime and are maintained to cover up the shortcomings and failures at home. Despite the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars under the nuclear agreement, there is total economic stagnation and the public has not witnessed any benefits. Inflation is still in double digits, while unemployment is staggering. The failure in the past few years of a series of major financial institutions affiliated with the IRGC has impacted millions of Iranians. The writer is executive director of the School of Public & International Affairs at the University of Baltimore.
2018-04-24 00:00:00
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