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In Iran, as Politicians Fade, the Military Raises Its Profile

(Asharq Al-Awsat-UK) Still smarting from the latest Israeli attacks on its positions in Syria, in Iran, some within the ruling establishment threaten "a fitting response" to the "Zionist aggression," while others deny there was any Israeli attack on Iran's bases. A third group implicitly demands a grin-and-bear-it response, avoiding any escalation. That the debate is dominated by the military indicates the diminishing influence of the civilian part of the Islamic regime. The "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei has maintained his silence on the Israeli attacks. As in other instances before, Khamenei prefers not to get directly involved in a confrontation that Tehran might well lose. Tehran authorities are forbidding media coverage of the burials of the estimated 50 Iranian personnel that have been killed. Until now, such occasions had been given maximum publicity. At the same time, Sa'adallah Zare'i, a strategic adviser to Khamenei, claimed that "forces of resistance" led by Iran had attacked Israeli positions in the Golan Heights, provoking the Israeli counter-attacks. "In our attack (in the Golan), Israel's principal intelligence gathering center was completely destroyed and dozens of its key personnel killed," Zare'i claimed. Declaring victory after a major setback is one of the oldest tactics of the Islamic Republic. It is used to prevent loss of face and explain the lack of any reaction where that is either impossible or regarded as too costly. Paradoxically, the rising military in Tehran appears to have no stomach for a fight over Syria as it contemplates new opportunities for asserting its own power inside Iran.
2018-05-18 00:00:00
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