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Can Pressure and Sanctions Succeed in Changing Iran?

(JNS) Ariel Ben Solomon - Dr. Harold Rhode, a former adviser on Islamic affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense, said in an interview that the Iranian people see the regime as reacting to recent protests from a position of fear. "The protesters have confidence because they inherently sense that the regime is weak," but will be careful and reserved as long as the regime is perceived to be strong. In an article for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs on Iranian negotiating behavior, Rhode stated: "It is only when Iranians become convinced that either their rulers lack the resolve to do what is necessary to remain in power or that a stronger power will protect them against their current tyrannical rulers that they will speak out and try to overthrow leaders." Rhode sees the U.S. pressure and sanctions strategy as having a chance of succeeding. Raz Zimmt, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, says the protests currently affect mainly the status of President Hassan Rouhani and the government and pose no real threat to the stability of the regime. As the economic crisis deepens in the coming months as a result of the resumption of economic sanctions, the regime will have two choices, according to Zimmt: To agree to a compromise with the U.S., even at the price of making significant concessions, or increase its "resistance economy" and willingness to increase internal repression, if necessary, "in an attempt to gain time in the hope that by the time sanctions make a significant effect, the U.S. administration will be replaced by a more convenient administration."
2018-07-05 00:00:00
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