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The Iranian Regime Is in Deep Trouble

(Times of Israel) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - After the re-imposition of the first round of sanctions on Iran by the Trump administration, efforts of Iran and Europe to mitigate their impact on the Iranian economy are doomed to fail. The "blocking statute" that the EU has announced in response does not have the power to prevent any reasonable company from cutting its economic relations with Iran or incentivize it to enter a costly legal adventure against the U.S. The Iran deal (JCPOA) was such a wonderful gift to Iran that even after the re-imposition of sanctions, Iran prefers to stay in the deal. The deal is still the best course for the Iranians to have an arsenal of nuclear weapons in less than thirteen years. Iran does not have a real confrontational option as long as the U.S. is perceived ready and capable to use force in case Iran challenges it. The bravado of Iran regarding closing the Hormuz Straits and the show of force in the Bab-el-Mandeb are empty threats. As the second round of sanctions draws closer, growing pressure may force the Iranian government to go through some soul-searching in an attempt to guarantee the survival of the regime - the only value more important to it than moving towards a nuclear arsenal and securing a hegemony in the Middle East. The writer, former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division, is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
2018-08-08 00:00:00
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