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Iran May Remain in Nuclear Deal to Shield It from a Military Strike

(Ha'aretz) Amos Harel and Amir Tibon - According to both Israeli and American officials, Iran's current strategy is to try to "wait out" President Trump's term in office while keeping the nuclear deal in place. The Iranians think the agreement can serve as an "insurance policy" against an American or Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Iranians believe that politically, it will be impossible for Trump to create international support, and even internal American consensus, for a strike on Iran as long as the 2015 agreement stands. The Israeli view is that Trump is perceived by the Iranians as someone who could actually choose a military strike, given the right conditions, and as an avid supporter of Israel who would let it take action on its own if it decided to. Israeli security officials believe Secretary of State Pompeo's 12 demands on Iran have returned a sense of balance to American policy in the Middle East: The U.S. is no longer exclusively focused on defeating ISIS, but is also asking itself how it can block Iran's influence. The Americans are devoting more efforts to blocking the actions of the Revolutionary Guards. Iran has so far not actualized its plan to build military installations in Syria. The grand Iranian vision of a Shi'ite militia with 100,000 soldiers in Syria has so far stopped at 10,000. Meanwhile, Russia has been keeping the Iranians 85 km. away from the Israeli border, except for the region of Damascus where there still is an Iranian presence.
2018-08-20 00:00:00
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