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After the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog - Iran has clear designs to turn war-torn Syria into a formidable military front against Israel, merging it with the front in Lebanon as part of a strategic plan to encircle Israel. In recent years, Israel has defined its red lines on Iranian involvement in Syria and enforced them through consistent military action - a campaign that has been relatively successful. In this sense, Jerusalem has correctly read the Trump administration's attitude as a division of labor: the U.S. applies pressure on Iran, mainly in the nuclear context, and limited to economic and political tools; meanwhile, the role of confronting Iran's regional ambitions militarily has been left to local forces, first among them Israel. Given Israel's guiding principle of independent self-defense and the fact that Washington does not see Syria as critical to its own national security interests, Israelis never expected U.S. forces to play an active role in the campaign to counter Iran militarily there. The Israeli-Iranian showdown in Syria has lessened in recent months, mainly due to Moscow's strong intervention with both parties following the September downing of a Russian military plane there. Yet hostilities could easily re-erupt in Syria, particularly if Iran steps up its activity there after a U.S. withdrawal. The writer, former head of strategic planning for the IDF and chief of staff to Israeli ministers of defense, is a fellow at the Washington Institute.
2019-01-09 00:00:00
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