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Israeli Strategy in Response to Changes in the Syrian Arena

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Lt.-Col. (res.) Ron Tira - Foiling the deployment of precision weapons by Iran and Hizbullah in Syria and Lebanon is a vital Israeli national interest that must be secured, even at the cost of assuming a higher level of risk than in previous years. Israel's critical infrastructures are vulnerable to precision weapons. 28% of the country's electricity is produced at only two sites, while its six largest electricity production sites account for 51% of national capacity. The picture is similar or even more severe for other critical systems, such as water desalination, gas infrastructure, and civil aviation. Even if only a small number of precision missiles manage to penetrate Israeli defenses, the impact could cause enormous damage and change the strategic equation. Each Israeli attack against Iran and Hizbullah in Syria must demonstrate Israel's operational superiority. Israeli strategy must seek to demonstrate to the relevant actors the potential for escalation and regional instability caused by the positioning of high quality Iranian weapons in Syria. Direct military hostilities with Iran (such as the events of Feb. 10 and May 10, 2018 and Jan. 21, 2019) in Israel's backyard and 1,500 km. from Tehran are occurring in an area where Israel has a clear advantage. Refraining from action is tantamount to consent to the buildup of a precision weapons capability by Iran and Hizbullah adjacent to Israel. The writer, a former fighter pilot, is a reservist in the Israel Air Force's Campaign Planning Department.
2019-01-22 00:00:00
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