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Slim Prospects for a Complete Economic Recovery in Syria

(Strategic Assessment-Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Dr. Oded Eran - Given the very high number of casualties and wounded, the three million people displaced inside Syria itself, and the six million refugees who fled from Syria, as well as the scope of the economic damage, the civil war in Syria is among the largest disasters since World War II. In the Aleppo governorate, 320,000 housing units were destroyed or damaged; in the Damascus governorate - 103,000 housing units. In these governates, 2/3 of the water treatment facilities, half of the pumping facilities and a quarter of the sewage treatment facilities were destroyed. From Assad's perspective, the fact that six million Syrians fled their country has improved his position, because as a result the number of opponents to his regime from inside Syria has diminished. He is willing to forfeit Western assistance and thereby avoid a political process of national reconciliation, which would entail ending his rule. Israel will not be capable of preventing Iran from establishing an economic base and strategic infrastructure in Syria. The reconstruction of Syria will be a long process due to the lack of financial resources for an accelerated process. The writer, a senior research fellow at INSS, served as Israel's ambassador to the EU and Jordan.
2019-02-01 00:00:00
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