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The American Intelligence Threat Assessment on Iran's Nuclear Program

(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - On Jan. 29, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: "We do not believe Iran is currently undertaking the key activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device." However, experience helps us realize that the American intelligence community has a very problematic track record in revealing, on time, the nuclear weaponization efforts of many countries (e.g., North Korea, India, Pakistan, Syria, and Iraq) including Iran itself, so one has to be very humble about this kind of assessment. Moreover, the IAEA inspection system approved by the Americans as part of the JCPOA provides the inspectors with zero ability to track and monitor the activities of the Iranian experts who are supposed to conduct the key activities, most of which can be performed in well-hidden facilities in Iran or - for example - in Syria. The ability to say that the activities do not happen requires much better access than simply not knowing about their existence. The assumption is that for now, Iran abides by the JCPOA. Of course they do, because this agreement is the best thing that ever happened to the Mullahs' regime. The JCPOA secures Iran's path to a large arsenal of nuclear weapons in 12 years - a path that was blocked before the agreement. The Iranians are working hard on all the elements that are not part of the development of the device itself - processing raw uranium to yellow cake (U3O8) and converting the yellow cake to uranium hexafluoride (UF6), as well as developing advanced IR-8 centrifuges. The period required for building a bomb is definitely much less than the one year the American report wrongly claims. Are we supposed to believe that the Iranians are not working on key activities regarding the development of a nuclear device? The DNI report refrains from presenting the inevitable conclusion that Iran continues to develop the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapons arsenal. The writer, former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division, is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center.
2019-02-13 00:00:00
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