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Economic Crisis Makes Iran More Vulnerable to Sanctions

[Los Angeles Times] Hossein Askari - Before Barack Obama "engages in aggressive personal diplomacy" with Iran, he'd be better off first allowing Iran's economic crisis to take its toll on the mullahs before getting down to serious business. Ahmadinejad's populist expenditure policies, coupled with the unprecedented collapse of the oil market, have driven Iran into an economic tailspin, leaving the country more vulnerable to focused economic sanctions than it has been in thirty years. When oil was at $150 a barrel, Iran's government spent the windfall as if there were no tomorrow. Now Iran finds itself in a precarious financial position with oil at $46. Iran is no superpower. Its GDP is less than 2% of that of the U.S. Its military is puny; Iran fought Saddam Hussein for eight years and could not advance even 100 miles into Iraq. A rush to negotiate would only embolden the mullahs, extract unnecessary concessions from the U.S. and subject Iranians to clerical rule for the foreseeable future. The new administration would be wise to back-burner serious negotiations with Iran for a while. The writer is the Iran professor of international business and international affairs at George Washington University.
2008-12-15 09:00:00
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