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Russia and Iran: Is the Syrian Honeymoon Over?

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi - After the victory of the Assad regime over the rebels in Syria with the assistance of Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies, inherent tensions between Russia and Iran regarding influence in Syria have emerged in greater relief. While Russia is intent on leading the process of reconstruction in Syria and aims to recruit the wealthy Sunni Arab states to this end, those states are making their assistance conditional upon limiting Iran's activities in Syria. However, Russia does not have sufficient leverage to remove Iran's military capabilities. Changes to Syria's top echelon made in early April with Russian encouragement, including the appointment of the pro-Russian Salim Harba as chief of staff, were meant to weaken the power of Syrian commanders connected to Iran and to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. For its part, Iran has for some time sought to integrate its Shiite militias, which include Iranian commanders, within the Syrian military. There are an estimated 30,000 fighters in Iranian-backed Shiite militias present in Syria. Arrests of pro-Iranian Syrian activists by Syrian security forces, ordered by Russia and sometimes with the participation of Russian military police, have been reported. Assad has rejected Iran's request to sign a strategic contract that would guarantee Iran's presence in Syria for the next 50 years, similar to the agreement that it signed with Russia. Brig.-Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel, former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division, is managing director of INSS, where Dr. Carmit Valensi is a research fellow and manager of the Syria research program.
2019-06-06 00:00:00
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