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Iran Faces Critical Problems in any Serious Military Conflict

(The Hill) Anthony Cordesman - Iran faces critical problems in any serious conflict with the U.S., the Arab Gulf states, and Israel. Iran is a major military power by regional standards in terms of sheer numbers of men and weapons. However, the bulk of its forces are poorly equipped with major weapons systems that date back to the 1970s. Its air forces are a bit of a military museum. It is just beginning to modernize its surface-to-air defenses, and its long-range ballistic and cruise missile forces are just beginning to develop the levels of precision that can make them accurate enough to be lethal against high value targets. Its land forces are defensive and have limited ability to support long-range maneuver, while its major ships and submarines cannot survive a major clash with the U.S. Navy. Iran is also highly vulnerable. It cannot launch major attacks on the petroleum exports of its Arab neighbors without ending its own. Its neighbors may have vulnerable civil and military targets, but its own military forces, critical economic facilities, electricity grid, water supply, oil refineries, industrial facilities, and key food distribution systems are highly vulnerable. Iran will find it far harder to ride out any serious conflict than its neighbors. The writer, a former policy adviser to the U.S. Defense and State Departments, holds the Arleigh Burke chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
2019-06-17 00:00:00
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